October 12 was 20 days into the voyage.
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## Three Days Running
Tami Oldham Ashcraft’s description of the three days before Hurricane Raymond struck is one of the more revealing passages in accounts of the disaster, because it describes the specific difficulty of evasion against a large, fast-moving storm in a sailing vessel.
The couple knew the hurricane was developing. They could track it on the vessel’s weather radio, through the National Hurricane Center advisories that were broadcast on specific shortwave frequencies. The advisories gave them the storm’s position, track, and intensity — enough information to understand approximately where it was going and at approximately what speed.
The fundamental problem was physics. Hurricane Raymond, at its cruising speed, was moving across the ocean at roughly twice the speed the Hazana could achieve under power and sail. A sailing vessel making six to eight knots has a theoretical top speed that is limited by its hull length — longer boats are faster — and a practical passage speed that depends on wind angle and strength. Under the best conditions, the Hazana might have made eight or nine knots. Raymond was moving at fifteen or more.
You cannot outrun a hurricane in a sailboat. What you can do is try to position yourself away from its projected track, to be somewhere the storm is not going rather than somewhere it is. This requires accurate knowledge of the storm’s track, which in 1983 was available but imperfect; hurricane track forecasts have improved significantly in the decades since, but even today they carry uncertainty at ranges beyond 24 to 48 hours.