The Y-chromosome analysis required recruiting and testing the Somerset-line descendants — living men whose documentable male-line ancestry traced to the Beaufort lineage descended from Edward III. Finding such individuals required a combination of historical genealogical research and outreach to people who could be persuaded to participate in a scientific study. The testing of Patrice de Warren, who claimed descent from an even earlier common ancestor, was an additional probe of the extended paternal lineage.
King has spoken publicly about the Richard III project in terms that reflect genuine scientific engagement with its implications. In media interviews and academic presentations, she has consistently emphasized the importance of treating the evidence with appropriate nuance — resisting the temptation to claim more certainty than the evidence supports, and resisting equally the temptation to sensationalize findings like the Y-chromosome mismatch in ways that distort their significance.
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## The 6.7 Million to One Figure
The statistical conclusion of the Nature Communications paper — a probability of identification described as approximately 99.999%, or odds of 6.7 million to one — has been widely cited as the summary statement of the identification’s certainty. It deserves careful unpacking.
Bayesian statistical analysis begins with a prior probability — an assessment of how likely the hypothesis under evaluation is before the evidence is considered — and then systematically updates that probability in light of each piece of evidence. The update for each piece of evidence depends on how likely that evidence would be if the hypothesis were true, compared to how likely it would be if the hypothesis were false.