The 2014 Delft study reconstructed the tidal conditions with precision that was not available to the FBI investigators in 1962. The investigators had the Army Corps of Engineers’ general assessments of the currents, not a 3Di hydraulic simulation that modeled the specific night. The conclusion that the currents were “unfavorable” was based on general knowledge of the bay’s tidal patterns, not on the specific modeling that the Dutch researchers applied decades later.
This gap — between the general assessment available to investigators in 1962 and the specific modeling available to researchers in 2014 — is part of why the official position evolved from “almost certainly drowned” to “most likely drowned.” The hydrodynamic evidence, when properly analyzed, supports a conclusion that is less certain than the initial assessment.
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## The Verdict History Hasn’t Rendered
History renders verdicts on cases when sufficient evidence accumulates to support a conclusion that the available record validates. Some cases receive that verdict quickly. Some receive it slowly, over decades, as new evidence emerges or as analysis improves. Some never receive it.
The June 1962 Alcatraz escape is, by the evidence available after sixty-plus years, in the category of cases that have not received a historical verdict. The evidence is insufficient to establish either outcome — drowning or survival — with the level of confidence that would allow a reasonable person to treat the question as settled.
This is unusual. Most escape attempts end in recapture, confirmed death, or surrender. The ones that end in long-term open questions are rare enough that the June 1962 escape stands as the most prominent example in American criminal history.